Cinco factores que condicionarán la inversión publicitaria

No todos se creen las optimistas previsiones para el mercado de la publicidad. Diane Mermigas da cinco razones en Seeking Alpha para pensar que el gasto en publicidad no crecerá tanto como algunos esperan:

1. The fortunes of retailers and advertisers are tied to the American consumer, and things don’t look good short-term.

2. The absence of an individual consumer connection-specific value standard: The measurement methods and dictated values must be consumer centric, which is why old-fashioned bulk television ratings and newspaper-estimated readerships have been rendered useless. Individual consumer connections are what content producers, distributors and advertisers seek to exploit. It will become the basic unit of value in the digital age. No one in media and industry support services, on Madison Avenue, in Hollywood or in Silicon Valley has figured this one out yet.


3. The push to establish paid content models will take the edge off of falling advertising revenues and change media’s overall revenue mix: The need for sustainable new revenue sources is clear. Top 100 media company revenue fell last year by nearly 1% to $301.5 billion (the lowest growth rate since 1991), and fell another 4.3% the first half of 2009, headed for a historical full-year drop, according to Advertising Age.


4. There is no equilibrium in the destruction of old media value and the creation of new economic value right now: The new revenues generated from nascent online, mobile and other digital platforms falls far short of the declining ad revenues from traditional venues, such as newspapers, magazines, television and radio. Rapidly changing consumer behavior ultimately will be the deciding factor.


5. As media-related transactions accelerate, companies will seek to reset their valuations on changing revenue projections which will be strongly influenced by emerging digital economics: This process will force companies to reconsider their allocations and reassess how consumers and other businesses spend.

 El artículo completo, aquí.